Understanding Stock Market Movement
Given enough time investing in the stock market, a trader will tell you that the research and analysis require the most time. In order to be successful, an investor needs to understand how the markets move and how to interpret differences in the various market indexes and what they mean. This kind of evaluation becomes an important part of an investor’s technical analysis of the stock market. It can add further clarity to various stock market movements and help an investor to find potential trades.
Let’s start this review by looking at each of the big three market indexes:
• S&P 500 – This market index is most commonly used by professionals in the financial world because it includes such a large sector of the market. It includes 500 of the most widely traded stocks and because it is a market cap weighted index, changes in larger companies tend to reflect more strongly than small cap stocks. The S&P 500 tends to be a more accurate indicator of market movements than the Dow.
• The NASDAQ Stock Market Composite – Even though this market index includes all of the stocks that are listed on the NASDAQ market, it is historically weighted toward technology stocks. This condition is the result of the fact that it is a market cap weighted index and thus the large cap stocks of technology companies strongly influence this index.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average – This is the old-timer of the bunch. The Dow is the oldest, most widely known and most quoted of all the market indexes. The Dow tracks 30 of the most influential companies in the US and because it represents only large companies, it misses out on the small and mid-size companies completely. Unlike the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, the Dow is a price weighted market index which means that if a stock price changes by $1, the effect on the market index is the same no matter the price of the stock. The Dow reflects only about 25% of the total market but changes in the Dow tend to reflect consumer confidence in the stock market as a whole.
What perspective does each index take?
Because each of the indexes takes a different approach, the stock market movement for each is different. For example, the NASDAQ structured so that technology stocks enjoy greater prominence that those in other stock sectors. This was evident in the late 1990’s when the technology boom was taking place. As events unfold that effect the technology sector, the NASDAQ will tend to see the most dramatic stock market movement, although the Dow will also be significantly affected.
The S&P 500, on the other hand, is not as severely impacted by tech stocks but tends to have a stock market movement that more accurately reflects the market in its entirety. Because it is weighted to the larger stocks it does not have the violent reaction to Wall Street news that its small-cap stocks might cause. The overall balance of the S&P 500 causes a more accurate representation of market movement than the Dow. This is the reason that most financial professionals use it as their barometer for stock market movement.
The Dow is the interesting one of the bunch; the granddaddy of the market indexes, it looks only to the 30 most influential stocks for its analysis of market movements. These are all large-cap stocks so they do not accurately evaluate the entire market, yet the Dow has proven to be the best market index for indicating consumer confidence.
Conclusion
No one index gives you the entire picture of stock market movements. The combination of the three can help you draw better conclusions about the market movements and what is motivating them. Activity by the tech sector will appear with strong reactions by the NASDAQ. Strong movements by the Dow can indicate whether the consumers are feeling good about the market in general. The Dow, though weighted to the top, will be a better indication of the overall stock market movement. By considering all three, successful traders can locate where highs and lows in stock market movement can be found and invest accordingly.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Stock Market Movement
Stock Market Research
It is nothing but foolishness to invest in the stock market without knowing about the market and market condition. But market research can help you gather relevant information about the stock business, which will help you play safe in the stock market. Market research companies advise you to study closely the performance chart, stock price, day trading and penny stocks of the company. They advise you to look for a reliable and experienced stockbroker. You can even refer to Stock Market Research Guides.
The stock market research must be based entirely on market research fundamentals and technical market research analysis. In India, there are many websites, which present a list of stocks that are profitable to invest in, based on market research principles.
Successfully venturing into the Stock market is not a child’s play. It requires deep understanding of the market, as said by market research firms and market research websites. If you want to profit in the stock market, then you have to develop a deep understanding of the stock market and have its basic knowledge.
Investors are tempted to invest in companies, which have large earnings and a high turnover rate. Market research firms help the investors to decide which company is profitable to invest in.
Market research professionals have formulated a principle that you have to keep in mind before investing in the stock market or any other market:
Buy low sell high — An intelligent investor is one who buys the shares at a low price and then sells it at a high price. It is this ability that will determine the profits or losses that you will earn from investing in the stock market. Market research companies tell you which company is reliable to invest in and what is the financial position of the company that you are willing to invest in. This information provided by market research firms helps you to take wise investment decisions.
You have to be wise enough to invest in the stock market seeing the conditions prevailing in the market. Do not invest unless you know well about the market that you are investing in. It is always wise to analyze the stock market well, before actually stepping into it.
Stock Market Corrections
A correction is a beautiful thing, simply the flip side of a rally, big or small. Theoretically, even technically I'm told, corrections adjust equity prices to their actual value or "support levels". In reality, it's much easier than that. Prices go down because of speculator reactions to expectations of news, speculator reactions to actual news, and investor profit taking. The two former "becauses" are more potent than ever before because there is more self-directed money out there than ever before. And therein lies the core of correctional beauty! Mutual Fund unit holders rarely take profits but often take losses. Additionally, the new breed of Index Fund Speculators is ready for a reality smack up alongside the head. Thus, if this brief little hiccup becomes considerably more serious, new investment opportunities will be abundant!
Here's a list of ten things to think about doing, or to avoid doing, during corrections of any magnitude:
1. Your present Asset Allocation should be tuned in to your long-term goals and objectives. Resist the urge to decrease your Equity allocation because you expect a further fall in stock prices. That would be an attempt to time the market, which is (rather obviously) impossible. Asset Allocation decisions should have nothing to do with stock market expectations.
2. Take a look at the past. There has never been a correction that has not proven to be a buying opportunity, so start collecting a diverse group of high quality, dividend paying, NYSE companies as they move lower in price. I start shopping at 20% below the 52-week high water mark... the shelves are beginning to become full.
3. Don't hoard that "smart cash" you accumulated during the last rally, and don't look back and get yourself agitated because you might buy some issues too soon. There are no crystal balls, and no place for hindsight in an investment strategy. Buying too soon, in the right portfolio percentage, is nearly as important to long-term investment success as selling too soon is during rallies.
4. Take a look at the future. Nope, you can't tell when the rally will come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality equities now (as you certainly could be) you will be able to love the rally even more than you did the last time... as you take yet another round of profits. Smiles broaden with each new realized gain, especially when most Wall Streeters are still just scratchin' their heads.
5. As (or if) the correction continues, buy more slowly as opposed to more quickly, and establish new positions incompletely. Hope for a short and steep decline, but prepare for a long one. There's more to Shop at The Gap than meets the eye, and you run out of cash well before the new rally begins.
6. Your understanding and use of the Smart Cash concept has proven the wisdom of The Investor's Creed (look it up). You should be out of cash while the market is still correcting... it gets less scary each time. As long your cash flow continues unabated, the change in market value is merely a perceptual issue.
7. Note that your Working Capital is still growing, in spite of falling prices, and examine your holdings for opportunities to average down on cost per share or to increase yield (on fixed income securities). Examine both fundamentals and price, lean hard on your experience, and don't force the issue.
8. Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of rules, rally or correction. That way you will always know which of the two you are dealing with in spite of what the Wall Street propaganda mill spits out. Focus on value stocks; it's just easier, as well as being less risky, and better for your peace of mind. Just think where you would be today had you heeded this advice years ago...
9. Examine your portfolio's performance: with your asset allocation and investment objectives clearly in focus; in terms of market and interest rate cycles as opposed to calendar Quarters (never do that) and Years; and only with the use of the Working Capital Model (look this up also), because it allows for your personal asset allocation. Remember, there is really no single index number to use for comparison purposes with a properly designed value portfolio.
10. So long as everything is down, there is nothing to worry about. Downgraded (or simply lazy) portfolio holdings should not be discarded during general or group specific weakness. Unless of course, you don't have the courage to get rid of them during rallies... also general or sector spefical (sic).
Corrections (of all types) will vary in depth and duration, and both characteristics are clearly visible only in institutional grade rear view mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable (kind of like men, I'm told); the long and slow ones are more difficult to deal with. Most recent corrections have been short (August and September, '05; April though June, '06) and difficult to take advantage of with Mutual Funds. So if you over think the environment or over cook the research, you'll miss the party. Unlike many things in life, Stock Market realities need to be dealt with quickly, decisively, and with zero hindsight. Because amid all of the uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact that reads equally well in either market direction: there has never been a correction/rally that has not succumbed to the next rally/correction...
Stock Market Window Dressing
As investors, and we all are investors these days, it is important that we understand the idiosyncrasies of the Stock Market pricing data we use to help us in our decision making efforts. On Wall Street, investing can be a minefield for those who don't take the time to appreciate why securities prices are at the levels that appear on quarterly account statements. At least four times per year, security prices are more a function of institutional marketing practices than they are a reflection of the economic forces that we would like to think are their primary determining factors. Not even close... Around the end of every calendar quarter, we hear the financial media matter-of-factly report that Institutional Window Dressing Activities" are in full swing. But that is as far, and as deep, as it ever goes. What are they talking about, and just what does it mean to you as an investor?
There are at least three forms of Window Dressing, none of which should make you particularly happy and all of which should make you question the integrity of organizations that either authorize, implement, or condone their use. The better-known variety involves the culling from portfolios of stocks with significant losses and replacing them with shares of companies whose shares have been the most popular during recent months. Not only does this practice make the managers look smarter on reports sent to major clients, it also makes Mutual Fund performance numbers appear significantly more attractive to prospective "fund switchers". On the sell side of the ledger, prices of the weakest performing stocks are pushed down even further. Obviously, all fund managements will take part in the ritual if they choose to survive. This form of window dressing is, by most definitions, neither investing nor speculating. But no one seems to care about the ethics, the legality, or the fact that this "Buy High, Sell Low" picture is being painted with your Mutual Fund palette.
A more subtle form of Window Dressing takes place throughout the calendar quarter, but is "unwound" before the portfolio's Quarterly Reports reach the glossies. In this less prevalent (but even more fraudulent) variety, the managers invest in securities that are clearly out of sync with the fund's published investment policy during a period when their particular specialty has fallen from grace with the gurus. For example, adding commodity ETFs, or popular emerging country issues to a Large Cap Value Fund, etc. Profits are taken before the Quarter Ends so that the fund's holdings report remains uncompromised, but with enhanced quarterly results. A third form of Window Dressing is referred to as "survivorship", but it impacts Mutual Fund investors alone while the others undermine the information used by (and the market performance of) individual security investors. You may want to research it.
I cannot understand why the media reports so superficially on these "business as usual" practices. Perhaps ninety percent of the price movement in the equity markets is the result of institutional trading, and institutional money managers seem to be more concerned with politics and marketing than they are with investing. They are trying to impress their major clients with their brilliance by reporting ownership of all the hot tickets and none of the major losers. At the same time, they are manipulating the performance statistics contained in their promotional materials. They have made "Buy High, Sell Low" the accepted investment strategy of the Mutual Fund industry. Meanwhile, individual security investors receive inaccurate signals and incur collateral losses by moving in the wrong direction.
From an analytical point of view, this quarterly market value reality (artificially created demand for some stocks and unwarranted weakness in others) throws almost any individual security or market sector statistic totally out of wack with the underlying company fundamentals. But it gets even more fuzzy, and not in the lovable sense. Just for the fun of it, think about the "demand pull" impact of an ever-growing list of ETFs. I don't think that I'm alone in thinking that the real meaning of security prices has less and less to do with corporate economics than it does with the morning betting line on ETF ponies... the dot-coms of the new millennium. [Do you remember the "Circle of Gold" from the seventies? Isn't GLD, or IAU, about the same thing?]
As if all of these institutional forces weren't enough, you need also consider the impact of tax code motivated transactions during the always-entertaining final quarter of the year. One would never suspect (after watching millions of CPA directed taxpayers gleefully lose billions of dollars) that the purpose of investing is to make money! The net impact of these (euphemistically labeled) "year end tax saving strategies" is pretty much the same as that of the Type One Window Dressing described above. But here's an off-quarter buying opportunity that you really shouldn't pass up. Simply put, get out there and buy the November 52-week lows, wait for the periodic and mysterious "January Effect" to be reported by the media with eyes wide shut amazement, and pocket some easy profits.
There just may not be a method to actually decipher the true value of a share of common stock. Is market price a function of company fundamentals, artificial demand for "derivative" securities, or various forms of Institutional Window Dressing? But this is a condition that can be used to great financial advantage. With security prices less closely related to those old fashioned fundamental issues such as dividends, projected profits, and unfunded pension liabilities and perhaps more closely related to artificial demand factors, the only operational alternative appears to be trading! Buy the downtrodden (but still fundamentally investment grade) issues and take your profits on those that have risen to inappropriately high levels based on basic measures of quality... and try to get it done before the big players do. To over simplify, a recipe for success would involve shopping for investment grade stocks at bargain prices, allowing them to simmer until a reasonable, pre-defined, profit target is reached, and seasoning the portfolio brew with the discipline to actually implement the profit taking plan.
Just call me old fashioned, but I miss the days when there were just stocks and bonds... interesting place Wall Street.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Stock Marketing and Investing Mistakes To Avoid
Investing in the stock market is probably one of the riskiest ventures you can delve into with your money. It is also one of the most profitable. So it is only normal that you may have reservations about actually trying your luck in the stock market.
There are two people that you need to find and make friends with to get started investing in the stock market. If you are a brand spanking new beginner then first find a friend that invests in stocks. Preferable you want to find someone you have known for a while and someone that you can trust as a friend. You can use your friend to bounce ideas off of and get help from. Also you want to find a good stockbroker to begin trading. You might ask your friend who he or she uses as a stockbroker. Later on once you have gotten your feet wet you will want to strike out on your own but have a safety net in place before doing that.
One of the worst stock moves you can make is with variable annuities using the premium of your insurance. A variable annuity is an insurance contract that allows you to invest your premium in mutual fund-like investments. This sounds good in paper, but if you look at it a little harder, you will find that they are bad investments in the long run for the following reason:
Some other things that you want to watch out for and be carefully when considering investing follow.
Tax cuts
Ordinary investments in stocks and mutual funds qualify for low capital gains treatments, thus smaller taxes. Your gains from investing your premium, on the other hand, get taxed as income as soon as you withdraw the money.
Early withdrawal penalties
Insurance plans are designed for retirement. Taking out money from your premium entails a certain amount of penalty from both the insurance company as well as the government. So if you withdraw your profits, you will be penalized.
Death benefit
If your stocks are down upon your death, your beneficiaries can get as much as the investments you put in. Unfortunately, if your stocks are up, they get taxed as a regular income.
Costs
Annuities with insurance features are actually more expensive than ordinary mutual funds. The more insurance features your annuity has, the more annual feels are heaped against it, which naturally eats up your profits.
Timing
There are specific times as well, when to and when to not make an investment. For example times of natural calamity may drive prices of stocks down but there are no insurance these would recover to make a good profit.
Of course investing money in the stock market is inherently risky and you will lose some money at some point in your stock investing career. It is natural and a part of the learning process. The important thing is don't give up and stop just because you have a lost a little money. Take the loss as a learning experience and move on. Now if you find all of your trades end up losing money then you might decide to take a different route. However by following the advice and tips above along with your own knowledge you will end up profitable int he long run.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Hollywood Stock Exchange
Back in 1993 on a movie tracking newsgroup, a group of guys started a predicting game. They set up a system where they could bid on upcoming films, and then figured out math formulas based on the buzz and the activity of those films in regards to the newsgroup to see if the price would rise or fall. It soon began to expand enough to become a website with an actual program running on it and thus the HSX or Hollywood Stock Exchange was born.
The HSX has gone through a lot of changes since those early beginnings, back in the dot.com boom of 2001, HSX went public and raised a good chunk of capital that it used to finance a TV channel, radio spots, and a whole slew of other market ideas, almost all of which have fallen through now.
Hollywood Stock Exchange is protected by US patents due to the specific formulas and processes they use and they have successfully protected themselves against software pirates who have attempted to nab the code for their own use. The HSX runs on a java platform with active server pages helping to keep the actual process hidden behind a shielded server wall.
When somebody decides to play the Movie market, they open a free account with HSX and are given 2 million Hollywood Dollars or H$. This is the online currency of the market, and is the only way to play the game. Players then buy and sell shares in the market and if they pick the right shares at the right time, their funds increase. I have been playing the HSX for about 18 months and have achieved more than H$43 million so far, which is not too bad.
Some of the biggest gains can come from predicting how much cash a movie will take on it's opening weekend. Because that is applied with a multiplier to the actual stock price, and if it is higher, then the stock price can jump up or down significantly. A big gain I managed to do was put some H$ onto Spiderman 3 before it released to theatres. That stock jumped more than H$43 on the strength of the box office, meaning every share held increased by that amount.
The HSX is a very good example of a prediction market, and the software that runs it is always being adjusted and tweaked by the operators to keep the system running at it's best performance. Thus we come to the big problem with HSX, downtime.
In the 18 months that this site has been monitored, not a week goes by that the site is not down for at least a couple of hours, or sometimes a full day. Quite often it will simply go down and nobody will say anything, then it recovers and people keep playing. Other times, the server will error or the database will fail, or any number of other excuses may occur that will cause the system to stop working, leaving the game's 10,000+ active players out of luck until the game is reset.
Now, even though the site is currently owned by an investment capital firm, I would imagine they would make it a priority to ensure their game, which is known around the world for what it is, would be kept up and stable. But it appears that they don't want to put too much into it. Even though HSX is ranked at 14,731 on Alexa's top 100,000 websites, which means it gets well over 10,000 hits a day if not more. HSX is also associated with the movie speculation site the numbers.com as they share information daily and have cross-links.
I find that quite sad as this type of site has a strong potential and it seems to be being squandered by the owners who seem to have no idea what to do with a concept like this, other than to let it sit without much improvement and let it die a slow death through neglect.
AMEX - The Third Stock Exchange
American Stock Exchange directors Alan Quasha, Philip Frost and others hit on investment option that the individual investor should consider: The Exchange-Traded Fund that combines the best of two worlds.
Many of us are familiar with the two major U.S. stock exchanges, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System (NASDAQ), for very obvious reasons. The NYSE is the stock exchange with the largest dollar volume in the world - the combined capitalization of all its listed companies was over $30.5 trillion (as of 31/12/07) - and its almost 4,000 listed companies make it one of the three stock exchanges with the highest number of listed companies. The NASDAQ has more trading volume per day than any other stock exchange in the world, and with its over 3,900 listed companies it competes with the NYSE for the second highest number of listings (the Bombay Stock Exchange has over 4,700 listings making it the stock exchange with the most listings, yet it has a combined capitalization of less than $2 trillion).
The third largest U.S. stock exchange with over 850 equity listings is the American Stock Exchange (Amex), and while it may seem to pale in comparison to the NYSE and NASDAQ it has many positive attributes that set it above its larger brothers. The Amex has much more liberal policies when it comes to the listing requirements, and this makes it much easier for small and medium sized companies to list. However, there is another aspect of the Amex that makes it attractive to the small investor - and it is here that its uniqueness and innovation is expressed.
In 1993 the Amex gave birth to a new investment instrument called the Exchange Traded Fund (EFT). In conjunction with State Street Global Advisors, Amex launched the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) with the introduction of the S&P 500 index fund (SPDR - colloquially termed "spiders"), which was linked to the S&P 500 Index. Since then, ETFs have flourished across all the stock markets, yet the Amex remains the home and breeding ground of the majority of ETFs. The flurry of activity following the introduction of the SPDR gave rise to many ETFs, many of them index-linked, and the years immediately following the SPDR's burst onto the investment stage coincided with the tenure of Amex governors Alan Quasha and Philip Frost, who together with the Amex leadership nurtured the ETF revolution.
To understand what an ETF is, and also to appreciate its advantages over other investment strategies, requires a basic knowledge of some of the classic investment options available to the private investor. The ETF is in reality a mutual fund that benefits from the advantages of a fund, yet it acts as a regular bond or stock, and thus incorporates the advantages of a stock, thereby eliminating the limitations of the mutual fund. (Many mutual funds - and in turn, ETFs - are linked to indices, which means the funds mimic the successful diverse combination of investments that comprise an index.)
A mutual fund is a collective investment fund which incorporates a basket of shares of listings across the market and it is seen as one of the most solid forms of stock market investment. This is due to its management by professional managers, but primarily due to the fact that it comprises a diverse portfolio covering many spheres of the market, and thus it is less vulnerable to sectorial fluctuations. Not only does it offer the small investor this cross-market diversity, but he is able to invest in numerous and high quality companies that would require funds far beyond the financial abilities of private individuals. (Of course the exact solidity and yield of the mutual fund depend on the declared aims and scope of each mutual fund.)
Regular stocks and bonds are the most basic commodities of a stock market. They are the shares that offer the public ownership in part of the listed company. Unlike shares in a mutual fund that may only be traded at their closing price at the end of the trading day, classic stocks may be traded at any moment, and the price fluctuations during the day can be utilized by investors in speculative activities. Thus the most fluid, dynamic and flexible investment on the stock exchange is the regular stock.
The exchange-traded fund combines the strongest aspects of mutual funds and regular stocks in offering the solidity and diversity of the mutual fund, together with its increased funds and professional management, and also incorporating the fluidity and dynamism of the stock, allowing all the investment activities and real time behavior of the stock. Additional benefits include lower management expenses, as regular brokerage fees apply, tax incentives expressed by lower rates, and the short-term capabilities of the stock. In effect, while investment in a mutual fund resembles an investment in stocks across the market, the ETF allows one to trade in numerous stocks across the entire market as if they were one stock.
With the many benefits of the ETFs, it is no surprise that this market has grown include hundreds of ETFs within only a few years. The Amex remains the fertile ground for the majority of ETFs, and this will continue due to its experience and flexible constitution. This fast growing investment option is estimated to surpass a capitalization of $1 trillion by 2010, and it is certainly one of the prime investment instruments that the individual investor must consider.
How to Improve Stock Exchange Systems
Stock Exchanges are more and more technology driven. The information systems SE uses, can be improved by using a technique that is entering all kinds of domains these days; Data Mining.
Data mining and business intelligence has changed many businesses already. A good example is sports. In soccer the game has been made more interesting because of additional comments that were provided by information systems. We get information on how many times the team has won in similar circumstances, how many penalties a player has missed, or how many corners converted into goals...
The Stock Exchange is another area where defaming technique could help to improve the main function of the exchange. This is to offer a platform for trade. During this crisis the value of Stock exchange stocks have decreased more than you would imagine the profits would decline, given the amount of trading. Many will trade less during a bear-market.
The worst a stock-exchange can do is to close down. This happened last week in Moscow and in Vienna. Closing down an exchange will not raise the confidence people have in such an exchange. There are many other mechanisms to control sell-off by stock-exchange-rules, but these are not always enough.
The decision to close an exchange is motivated by the fear of a massive sell-off. Similar to a run on banks. If people sell now, how do we know whether they come back ever?
Data mining may offer help in such a situation. To gain back some confidence wall displays or information on websites may offer information to put the decline in a perspective; for example: "in ... (similar) situations a three days decline like this, was followed by a 15% increase in the following two days."
The right and exact messages need to be assessed, but the idea is to control pure fear. And to offer an alternative to closing the exchange.
The Soccer game has changed since data mining and maturity of information systems.
The stock exchange is a market that has already changed much of its form. It used to be a floor with people, and they could communicate to each other, now only information systems can control a path that has been entered by use of these same information technology. And defaming seems the most appropriate for the short term. Stock-Exchange-stocks that are best developed with these kinds of technology will outperform other SE-stocks in the future.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Stock Scanning Tips
Stock scanning is a vital tool used by professional traders to find symbols that fit their criteria. There are thousands of programs and resources that scan the stock market based upon investor criteria, locating stocks that fit your trading system. Are you seeking stocks with a price between $5 and $50 with a PEG ratio of .4? A stock scanner will search through piles of data and return with hundreds of names that match the criteria. Why do all the initial searching when automated programs can do it for you?
Stock scanning saves time
Looking through thousands of stocks listed on trading exchanges takes time – when your most valuable resource as a trader is the time you can spend trading rather than searching.
Finding stocks does not make money for you; it’s the trading that does. Planning to use a stock scanner or manual scanning in a trading plan is a good way to lay down the rules for your trading systems.
What to consider when adding stock scanning tips
Consider what kind of trader you are in creating the parameters for your stock scanning. For example, if you find yourself making money shorting stocks and losing on buying, scan only for stocks that have a fundamental problem.
Inherently, when you trade with the market, the odds are in your favor. Creative techniques, such as only selling stocks short if they are largely unprofitable, are a good way to increase your odds. Likewise, buying companies with huge year over year growth makes much more sense than selling the stock at a top. If you flow with the uptrends, downtrends and sideways trends, you’ll produce bigger profits and smaller losses. That’s a combination that can’t be beat.
Trading plan planner
Profitable traders know that a good trading plan planner creates the foundation of successful profits. A trading plan planner will allow you to organize your thoughts and system into one comprehensive trading plan.
Outline your stock scanning tips and proven strategies in a step by step plan. Start with the most simple but also definitive indicator. For example, if only 10% of stocks qualify for a certain criteria, it would be smart to start off the steps with that specific criteria set. Weeding out the bad stocks as quickly as you can will speed up the scanning process and leave you only with quality stocks you would want to hold.
Philosophy of stock scanning
Stock scanning is done to save time and money, while allowing you to place quality trades. It isn’t the number of trades that count, but the quality and what each stock brings to the table. In many respects, stock scanning is the best way to count through thousands of shares and find the best company for your trading plan. When trading plan and quality stocks meet, you’ll become a profitable trader.
Investing in the Stock Market
A 29 year old young marine engineer from India wants to invest in stocks. He has been advised to invest in stocks by another first timer who is 65 years of age in USA! After retirement, he has taken to investing in the stock market. A bored housewife monitors the trading regularly once her husband leaves home! All have diverse plans but each person wants to make money through the stock exchange. Never has the Sensex been so attractive to draw the attention of investors. Who does not want to make money? Is trading safe? Will the US recession hit the trading season badly? What is the right time to invest and which are safe companies to invest?
Today doing anything without specialized knowledge can be dangerous. Every niche industry has consultants to advice debutants. Getting into the share market is like entering a jungle. Without an investment guide, even a regular trader can get confused. Before making an entry in the trading ring, study, for at least three months the existing stocks and monitor the market movement. Speak to habitual traders, and brokers to understand how it works. Well researched and hands-on knowledge on the trading practice will familiarize you with the common phrases, names and even codes used in the market. There are many online financial sites that give customary tips and advice to invest. You would need a financial calculator, online access to the stock exchange and a brokerage account. Much before that, you will have to decide why are you investing in the stock market? What financial goals have you set and what time period has been set to make profits? This is critical to determine which stocks you will be picking up. There are different plans for short and long time trading.
For investment you will have to make a portfolio to maintain and track the account of the companies being investing in. Read and research about the performance of these companies and monitor them regularly. You cannot risk any money on companies that fluctuate. There is a choice of premium (also referred as blue-chips), mid-cap and lower end stocks. The portfolio should be diverse enough to withstand losses. Try not to sell the stock, if its points come down. And do not rush to buy just because everyone is doing so. There is manipulation even at the stock exchange and one has to remain calm in the face of the storm. It is difficult to understand right away, but once the interest is there, investment in stock market can become a heady experience.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Money in Stocks Market
Are you one of the many people who have no time to do detailed analysis, but want to do some stock trading? Then these Instant profits may work for you. It’s the how to buy and hold strategy. This trading course has established itself as a concise, clear and highly effective approach to stocks and investment strategy.
Instant Profits is Bill’s proprietary trading method. Based on technical analysis it’s a method that both beginner and intermediate traders can understand and implement. Once you learn Bill Poulos’ trading system, you fully understand how and why it makes you money. Here are some trading secrets,
1) Stock market always goes up and down. In the long run you must have an exit strategy that limits risk, otherwise you are just buying, holding, and hoping. You need to use a trading method that applies to any market – bull or bear that potentially gives you a winning edge.
2) Most of the so-called “experts” that tell you trading is easy never tell you about money management and discipline. Trading requires diligence on the part of the trader to follow a good trading method, use good money management principles, and trade with discipline.
3) Most of trades go from trading method to method, chasing after the next sure thing only to be disappointed over and over again. The reality is the Holy Grail of Trading does not exist.
4) Selling short works just as well as buying long. In fact, being long in a bear market is far more risky than being short. And of course, being short in a bull market is equally risky. So the level of risk of a position is dependent on the use of good money management methods, not whether you are short or long.
5) The majority view for the coming year stock market performance by the top name analysts in the country is almost never correct. That is because the market is simply unforecastable.
Although the market is a hazardous place, but you can still amass a fast fortune if you know the secrets. Instant profits system will acquaint you with some of the most successful ways of profiting in the market.
The Biggest Stock Market Secret
This could be the most shocking article you've read for a very long time.
When you discover he biggest stock market secret of all, it could undermine everything you believe about trading in stocks. It could also completely turn your trading around by removing the "gambling" element almost entirely, and turning your losses into profits overnight.
Whether you're currently an active investor or not, you'll know the basics of how most people play the stock market. It can be summed up in two words.
Buy
Pray
You might laugh, but you know it's true!
They get a 'hot tip' from a newspaper, a tip sheet, a guy in a bar, wherever, and they go ahead and buy the stock. Then, they wait and hope and pray that it goes up, and IF it does, they sell and collect a profit.
It's not exactly what you'd call a strategy, now is it?
Of course, there are traders who work far more sophisticated strategies than "Buy & Pray". They might use charts and technical analysis and work their trades on moving averages, Fibonacci lines, Bollinger bands and so on. They might go short occasionally to profit from an expected downward move, but the "gambling" element is still there – decide which direction the stock is likely to move in, and take a position on that basis.
If you're right, fantastic! If you're wrong, it's more of your trading capital down the tubes, and back to the drawing board for the next trade.
Why do people trade this way?
Well, I've done quite an in-depth study of this, and here's what I've found. Most people trade a direction because they think they're right (of course!) and because they don't know any other way of trading.
Even more fundamentally, though, there is an underlying belief that says,
"There are people in the world who can accurately and consistently predict the direction of any given stock or market. If I work at it hard enough, I'll eventually become one of them."
(And the nagging question here, of course, is whether "eventually" will come around before the trading capital runs out!)
So here's the biggest stock market secret…
NO ONE has the ability to accurately and consistently predict the direction of any given stock or market, and so it doesn't matter how long you trade for, you'll NEVER attain this ability!
I did warn you, didn't I? You might want to re-read that a couple of times, just to let it sink in.
And then you'll find a question emerging from the gloom – So, now what??
Well, if no one can predict the direction of the market, how to those 'in the know' trade? The answer is perhaps the second-biggest stock market secret.
The reality is, the "smart money" does NOT trade the direction of the market. The "smart money" trades only in situations where a big move is likely – and the "smart money" doesn't care which direction that move takes, because they're positioned to make a profit whether the stock falls or rises!
Again, may I suggest you re-read that paragraph a couple of times, too? Consistently successful traders trade to profit from big, fast moves, regardless of whether that move is up or down.
Can you learn how to follow in their footsteps? Absolutely!
Can you profit in the same way they do, without having to "gamble" on the direction of a market or stock? Absolutely!
Will it take you away from your job, your family, your leisure time? Absolutely not! This form of trading is unique as it's largely a set-and-forget strategy – and the 'setting' takes only a few hours a month!
Once you understand this profit-either-way strategy – and I suggest you learn direct from a professional trader who does this for a living – there are only a few steps to take, once a month.
You a) check which stocks are highlighted for you; b) check for the presence of one particular indicator; c) check to see if a highlighted stock with an indicator is a definite trade on a private website; and d) place the trade (with one phone call, or through your online trading platform).
And that's it!
You then profit if the stock moves up. And you profit if the stock moves down. And can usually bank your profits in a matter of days, as you'll be trading on volatility here, which means large moves in a short timeframe.
You'll only lose a little if the stock does nothing at all which, when you understand the strategy, you'll realise is quite a rare event.
Happy trading!
Know the Stock Markets
The stock market is like a gregarious, uncertain beast – you can never predict which turn it's going to take or which direction it is headed for. Having said that, let us also admit that the stock market is one of the most exciting markets in the world that can make your fortunes if you play it right.
And, if you want to play the stock market right, you have to figure out how it ticks. Here then are basics and fundamentals of a stock market that will clue you on:
What Is A Stock Market?
A stock market is a trading place where you can buy and sell stock (shares) issued by a company. Alternatively, you can also trade in several derivative products, which are basically financial instruments in the form of contracts, where the parties to the contract agree to exchange payments based on the value of a share at a future date.
Stock Market Trading Explained
Many individuals and entities trade in the stock market. Small investors, day traders who square up their transactions on the same day, investment/financial companies, banks, hedge funds, individuals with a high net worth, institutions, mutual funds – all are involved in stock market trading.
These individuals and entities place their buy or sell orders through a market intermediary, called the stockbroker. Majority of the transactions are routed through a network of computers that execute orders in a matter of seconds.
Stock Market Strategies
In the stock market, you can buy and sell the stocks you own. Besides this, there are several strategies such as short-selling, which means you do not own the stock, but sell it nevertheless (by borrowing it from your broker at a fee) because you feel its price is going to drop – and when the price does drop, you buy it back. Plus, you can buy or sell stocks at a future date if you trade in the derivatives market. Then, you can also indulge in margin buying, which in simple terms means you borrow money to buy stocks, thereby exposing yourself to debt.
Stock Market Index
The stock market index is a value, determined by the stock exchange authorities, that reflects the market's movement. This value is based on a handful of high-volume and reputed stocks – these are weighed and a number is given to them. This number or value fluctuates according to the movement in the prices of these stocks and this is what indices such as the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ, the S & P (Standard & Poor) are all about.
Methods That Influence Investment Decisions
There are two methods that can influence investment decisions in a stock market: (i) Fundamental analysis is a method, wherein the companies past and current performance is analyzed along with the factors that will affect its future profitability. Medium-long term investors invest on the basis of fundamental analysis. (ii) Technical analysis is another method that studies the correlation of price and volumes over a span of time and then gives a buy or a sell signal on the basis of this correlation.
There, those were basics of the stock market. If you want to trade successfully, then you have to understand how the stock market works, because there is no other way, no other shortcut. Happy trading.